We appear about halfway down in this posting:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-coronavirus-could-change-how-we-vote-in-2020-and-beyond/
The first paper, “The Problems of Minimal Support: Considerations for an Establishment Survey of Local Election Officials,” is co-authored by Jay Lee and Paul Gronke.
Here is the abstract (click https:/evic.reed.edu/spsa_sampling_paper/ to view the full paper).
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In our last blog post we explored turnover among local election officials in the US. In this installment we turn to examine how the Stewards of Democracy are selected for their positions and how LEOs themselves think about selection methods. We hope our results can inform ongoing discussions about how we select the local and state officials who administer American elections.
Local election officials that administer elections across the United States may have run for office, been appointed, or been hired into their positions. Elections may have been partisan or non-partisan contests. As with so many features in American election administration, selection methods vary both across and within states.
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Some 8,000 local election officials guide elections across the United States. These local officials work to assure the safety, security, and legitimacy of our elections. These Stewards of Democracy are a critical group in our nation – yet they do not receive much attention.
In 2018, the Early Voting Information Center (EVIC) at Reed College, in partnership with the Democracy Fund, initiated an annual survey of local elections officials to learn more, and to share the perspectives of these public servants. This is the first in a series of posts sharing our 2019 results, reflecting on what we have learned in the first two years of our polling.
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I’m following news coverage of the first election with early voting in New York State. I’ve been studying early voting for over fifteen years, and have dealt with a lot of journalists over time. It’s a learning experience for journalists new to the early voting “beat.”
One pattern that we see in almost every state is that older voters gravitate toward early voting (though this pattern typically changes as the system matures, as voters and campaigns adapt to early voting).
But otherwise, these first patterns are always fascinating. The linked story is from Erie County, NY does a nice job unpacking why elderly voters are so heavily represented among the early vote.
First, it looks like most early voting centers were places in senior citizen homes and community centers. And voter response is predictably high among those who frequent these locations.
Second, it’s a low profile election, and these are typically dominated by frequent voters, and elderly voters are far more likely to be frequent voters.
Good job, Buffalo NPR, WBFO!
There’s a good story at 538.com by Nathaniel Rakich on the turnout effects of automatic voter registration. He does a good job identifying the boundaries of the potential effects, and is sensitive to the difficult problem of identifying the counter-factual.
Gronke quote about behavioral economics and opt-in / opt-out implementation:
And then there’s the behavioral economics of it all. Reed College professor Paul Gronke told FiveThirtyEight that social science research has generally found that an opt-out system (like AVR) is more effective than an opt-in one (like having to actively register yourself).
The research continues!
A great article in Salon by the always insightful Steven Rosenfeld illustrates the difficulties of implementing national party mandates for a fully inclusive primary system while retaining the unique in-person and face to face features of the Iowa caucus.
The immediate takeaway from the article is that the phone-based system for “virtual voting” that was proposed in Iowa and Nevada has severe security risks, and it’s been abandoned. The bigger question, it seems to me, is whether or not requiring absentee (and presumably early) voting in Iowa will fundamentally alter the dynamics of this contest, with reverberations down the line in our sequential nominating process.
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Cool to see the publicity for tonight’s event. But that picture, oh my gosh, that’s really old …
https://pamplinmedia.com/lor/54-my-community/450044-365762-increasing-voter-turnout-is-focus-of-w2dems-meeting?wallit_nosession=1