Oregon is in the midst of an experiment: how will voter turnout change in response to free paid postage on ballot return envelopes? Already, as shown in the figure below, we have some indications that turnout could exceed the 40% level of 2008. The 2008 and 2020 lines are eerily similar.
But many things have changed in the state that makes it difficult to make comparisons until we have the certified voter file.
First, we are comparing what remained a competitive Democratic primary by May 2008 to an all but decided Democratic primary in 2020. The 2008 GOP primary had long been decided, and of course, there is not a competitive primary on the GOP side in 2020.
Second, Oregon has added more than 300,000 new registrants as a result of Oregon Motor Voter, and 80% of these were registered unaffiliated. Even though the figure uses the voting eligible population as a baseline (thanks to the US Elections Project for these data) so that we can compare across years, it remains impressive that turnout in 2020 rivals 2008. The Oregon electorate is clearly energized, and it is possible that these data provide some evidence that Oregon Motor Voter, plus the Oregon political system, are successfully converting many of those previously unregistered into consistent voters.
Third, of course there are other things that are changing between these years. Down ballot races change; in some cases, there are bond measures and other ballot items; and the general political climate shifts.
All of this makes it very difficult to identify precisely the impact that pre-paid postage has on turnout. Much will become clearer tomorrow when we see how many ballots were returned on the last day. Will we see such a large bump as in previous years, or because of COVID-19 and pre-paid postage, will the election day “bump” be much lower?
By Paul Gronke and Jay Lee ’19
Oregon is in the midst of an experiment: how will voter turnout change in response to free paid postage on ballot return envelopes? Already, as shown in the figure below, we have some indications that turnout could exceed the 40% level of 2008. The 2008 and 2020 lines are eerily similar.
But many things have changed in the state that makes it difficult to make comparisons until we have the certified voter file.
First, we are comparing what remained a competitive Democratic primary by May 2008 to an all but decided Democratic primary in 2020. The 2008 GOP primary had long been decided, and of course, there is not a competitive primary on the GOP side in 2020.
Second, Oregon has added more than 300,000 new registrants as a result of Oregon Motor Voter, and 80% of these were registered unaffiliated. Even though the figure uses the voting eligible population as a baseline (thanks to the US Elections Project for these data) so that we can compare across years, it remains impressive that turnout in 2020 rivals 2008. The Oregon electorate is clearly energized, and it is possible that these data provide some evidence that Oregon Motor Voter, plus the Oregon political system, are successfully converting many of those previously unregistered into consistent voters.
Third, of course there are other things that are changing between these years. Down ballot races change; in some cases, there are bond measures and other ballot items; and the general political climate shifts.
All of this makes it very difficult to identify precisely the impact that pre-paid postage has on turnout. Much will become clearer tomorrow when we see how many ballots were returned on the last day. Will we see such a large bump as in previous years, or because of COVID-19 and pre-paid postage, will the election day “bump” be much lower?
Stay tuned!