Oregonians Returning Ballots Earlier than in Previous Years
Oregonians are eager to vote in the upcoming November 3 election. As of the morning of October 21, nearly 2 weeks before Election Day, almost 500,000 of the 3 million registered voters in the state have already returned their ballot. This is 24% of the 2 million ballots cast in the 2016 general election.
The Portland City Council Position 4 Race: Will We See a 2016 Repeat?
The contest for position 4 in Portland City Council is highly competitive, and recent polling shows the challenger, Mingus Mapps with a nine point lead over Commissioner Chloe Eudaly, but with 40% of the electorate reporting that they are undecided, this race will go all the way to the wire.
In our last post, “Visualizing the Position 4 City Council Race,” we conducted a geo-spatial analysis of the May 2020 primary to try to understand the candidate dynamics in a competitive primary. The data we examined showed that Mapps has some advantages in the November run. Precincts that showed comparatively higher levels of support for Sam Adams were more similar to precincts that showed higher level of support for Mapps than those which were centers of strength for Eudaly.
Continue reading
Visualizing the Position 4 Portland City Council Race
Canyon Foot ’20 and Paul Gronke
The runoff election between Commissioner Chloe Eudaly and her challenger, Mingus Mapps, is likely the hottest Portland area election in in November.
Eudaly, no stranger to the challenge of ousting an incumbent, has found herself on the defensive. In the May primary, the vote was split between three contenders: Eudaly with 31.3% of the vote, Mapps with 28.6%, and former mayor Sam Adams, who garnered received 27.7%. Five other candidates divided the remaining 12.4% of the vote. Because no one received over 50% in the May election, there will be a run-off between the top two candidates in November.
Continue readingBy Canyon Foot ’20, Paul Manson ’01, Paul Gronke, and Jay Lee ’19
Motivation:
Canyon Foot and Paul Gronke have recently posted two analyses of the Portland City Council races. For these analyses, we hoped to understand the spatial and demographic variation of support for City Council and other contests defined by the geographic and political boundaries in Multnomah County.
What we are doing: Spatial joins between Census Tracts and precincts:
In order to answer these questions, researchers often rely on estimates produced by the US Census using the American Community Survey (ACS). Unlike the Decennial Census, the ACS samples a percentage of households each year to ask about detailed demographics including income, employment, housing, etc. These are then aggregated at various geographies from the block group up to counties, metropolitan areas and states. These smaller units have smaller samples, and thus more error. As such, researchers often must work with a larger area because of its greater sample size (and smaller error).
It’s All About (Precinct) Turnout: Post Election Analysis of the Portland City Council Position 2 Runoff
It’s been an exciting year in Portland city politics. Three City Council seats were being on the ballot in May, and two of the most hotly contested were Seat 2, the replacement election for the late Nick Fish, and Seat 4, with current Commissioner Chloe Eudaly facing off with two high-profile challengers.
We’ll be releasing our analysis of the Seat 4 race later this week. In this posting, we are looking at the August 11th run-off special election between Loretta Smith and Dan Ryan.
Continue reading
Voter Turnout With Postage Paid VBM Ballots
By Paul Gronke and Jay Lee ’19
Oregon is in the midst of an experiment: how will voter turnout change in response to free paid postage on ballot return envelopes? Already, as shown in the figure below, we have some indications that turnout could exceed the 40% level of 2008. The 2008 and 2020 lines are eerily similar.
But many things have changed in the state that makes it difficult to make comparisons until we have the certified voter file.
Continue reading
Stewarding Democracy in a Pandemic: A Profile of the Wisconsin LEOs
Local election officials in Wisconsin have been put in an untenable situation. LEOs are being asked to administer an election in the midst of a global pandemic and while a statewide “stay at home” order has been issued by Governor Tony Evers.
For a period of time, it seemed like Wisconsin politicians were able to work together and navigate the challenges of the COVID-19 pandemic. That is until an election occurred. While politicians continue to fight with one another from their home offices, 1,849 local election officials, thousands of volunteer poll workers, and millions of citizens are being forced to decide between their health and their right to vote.
Who are these dedicated civil servants who have been asked to shoulder the challenge of holding the first COVID-19 pandemic election? In partnership with the Democracy Fund, the Early Voting Information Center at Reed College has been surveying local election officials nationwide about their jobs, their career aspirations, and their opinions about election integrity and reform. We’d like to share a few of these findings to put a human face on Wisconsin’s “stewards of democracy.”
Continue reading
After a surge of ballots returned last week, this week we saw the number of ballots returned daily in Oregon drop to about the same rate as they were returned in previous years. Still ahead of us, however, are the three days when turnout has historically been the highest: Friday, Monday, and Tuesday. In previous years, around a quarter of all ballots have been received by elections offices on Election Day.