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- Founder & Director: Paul Gronke
- Research Director: Paul Manson
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Recent Updates
- Merry-go-Round: Tracking Ranked Choice Voting Results
- Explainer & Lessons Learned From the Ballot Drop Box Fires in Multnomah County, Oregon and Clark County, Washington
- Watch the Oct 8, 2024 “Fireside Chat” at Reed College about the Impact of EVIC’s Local Election Official Survey Program on Election Science Research and Election Administration
Nate Silver has a post over at 538 about Washington state, and the difficulties with forecasting election results there. I don’t know how pollsters adjust their likely voter models in states with significant early voting (though this seems like an increasingly important question), but I do want to note his comments about the impact of vote-by-mail. Silver contends:
This seems wrongheaded on two fronts. First, as we’ve shown several times, vote-by-mail has caused a very small turnout increase in Oregon and Washington – on the order of a few percent in federal elections. (Although admittedly, we do see a more substantial effect in lower-tier races.) In fact, political participation is part of the culture in these two states, and they have long had high rates of voter turnout.
Second, as turnout increases in a state, the impact of likely voter models presumably becomes less important. Washington and Oregon have levels of turnout way above the national average, most other states, and the pollsters’ baselines for likely voter models.
Update: Gronke posted this reply on the Time blog: