Oregonians are eager to vote in the upcoming November 3 election. As of the morning of October 21, nearly 2 weeks before Election Day, almost 500,000 of the 3 million registered voters in the state have already returned their ballot. This is 24% of the 2 million ballots cast in the 2016 general election.
Note here that the data updates in the morning each day, so a full day of ballot collection has not yet been logged for today (13 days before Election Day).
17% of registered voters have already cast their ballots, compared to 8% at this point in 2016 and 6% in 2012.
Oregon’s first-in-the-nation automatic voter registration has registered more eligible voters over time than would have ordinarily registered since its implementation in 2016, and some of these new registrants are unlikely to vote. When political scientists measure voter turnout, they tend to use more stable denominators such as the voting-age population (VAP) or voting-eligible population (VEP), the latter of which discounts residents who are ineligible because they are in prison or are not citizens. Dr. Michael McDonald, of the University of Florida, publishes estimates of the VAP and VEP in the lead-up to each election. Since voter registration in Oregon has increased in a way that is incomparable to other states and previous elections, we also calculate voter turnout as a percentage of VEP.
In 2012 and 2016, we saw about 80% of registered voters cast ballots in the November general elections. What remains unseen this year is whether this increase is a sign that more Oregonians will turn out to vote, or if turnout will be similar but more voters are returning their ballots early on. In previous years, almost a quarter of all ballots cast arrived at election offices across the state on Election Day.
Oregonians are eager to vote in the upcoming November 3 election. As of the morning of October 21, nearly 2 weeks before Election Day, almost 500,000 of the 3 million registered voters in the state have already returned their ballot. This is 24% of the 2 million ballots cast in the 2016 general election.
Note here that the data updates in the morning each day, so a full day of ballot collection has not yet been logged for today (13 days before Election Day).
17% of registered voters have already cast their ballots, compared to 8% at this point in 2016 and 6% in 2012.
Oregon’s first-in-the-nation automatic voter registration has registered more eligible voters over time than would have ordinarily registered since its implementation in 2016, and some of these new registrants are unlikely to vote. When political scientists measure voter turnout, they tend to use more stable denominators such as the voting-age population (VAP) or voting-eligible population (VEP), the latter of which discounts residents who are ineligible because they are in prison or are not citizens. Dr. Michael McDonald, of the University of Florida, publishes estimates of the VAP and VEP in the lead-up to each election. Since voter registration in Oregon has increased in a way that is incomparable to other states and previous elections, we also calculate voter turnout as a percentage of VEP.
In 2012 and 2016, we saw about 80% of registered voters cast ballots in the November general elections. What remains unseen this year is whether this increase is a sign that more Oregonians will turn out to vote, or if turnout will be similar but more voters are returning their ballots early on. In previous years, almost a quarter of all ballots cast arrived at election offices across the state on Election Day.