Jeff Zeleny of the NY Times had a nice piece on early voting yesterday, and how the rise of new balloting methods have altered political campaigns.
I notice that no academics were quoted in the piece, including of course, me! I think this is actually an accomplishment – while I have been predicting these changes to campaign strategy for years, there have been little hard data, or even anecdotes, illustrating the change.
Zeleny’s story, rather than relying on speculative quotes from scholars like myself, relies on quotes from candidates, party officials, and the like. This is good – early voting has gone mainstream.
And ironically, post-2010 and especially post-2012 is finally the time when academics will be able to finally weigh in with solid empirical data about the impact of early campaigns on voter behavior.
Crossposted at electionupdates.caltech.edu
This Sunday’s NYT ramped up the newspaper’s midterm election coverage, including a story highlighting a wave of negative advertising being put out by Democrats in tight races.
As we’ve argued in the past, the longer “Election Day” created by early voting is likely to change campaigns in a number of ways, including bringing forward the blitz of negative advertising that was traditionally reserved for later in the cycle:
Opposition research and attack advertising are used in almost every election, but these biting ads are coming far earlier than ever before, according to party strategists. The campaign has intensified in the last two weeks as early voting begins in several states and as vulnerable incumbents try to fight off an onslaught of influences by outside groups.
I have given many talks about vote by mail / no excuse absentee voting in the past four years. One of the most interesting topics is always voter intent–a concept foreign to many Midwesterners and East Coasters (election officials are generally aware from professional contacts).
The first national learning moment on voter intent was probably the contested Minnesota Senate race. Now it looks like voter intent has hit the big time with the Murkowski announcement in Alaska.
As I blogged about a few weeks ago, combine voter intent laws with a very lenient post-mark it by election day, a slow postal system in Alaska, a close race in Alaska, and the possibility that control of the Senate may rest with the state, and we have a recipe for a firestorm.
If you’re an election lawyer or election law/admin scholar, it might be good to clear your calendar for two weeks after Nov. 2.
Voting in the Swedish general election (taking place on Sunday), is in full swing, with early turnout already at record levels. Swedish news source The Local (quoting a political scientist at the University of Gothenburg) provides more evidence of how administrative changes can drive usage:
“Oscarsson belives one reason that more Swedes are voting early is the increased number of locations where people to vote without a voting card, which is automatically mailed to eligible voters several weeks prior to election day.
“If voters forget their cards, which are presented to election officials at polling stations, can instead have a new one printed out on the spot.”
Hat-tip: my brother!
This story in the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s website caught my eye. The tone is breathless and the reporter levels a lot of broadsides. But it reads more like an editorial or commentary than a real news story. If it has legs, I expect we’ll hear more.
Interesting initiative by the Iowa GOP. I’m not sure why this even merits coverage, it’s legal and it’s probably a good idea.
Richard Borreca of The Honolulu Star Advertiser celebrates “thoughtful and engaged electorate“.
Sounds like good news, right? No, it’s a terribly done story on two grounds. First, “surveying” the electorate by hanging out for an hour outside of polling place is bad practice. The writer acknowledges that he is using an “admittedly small sample” (it’s not a SAMPLE for crying out loud!).
But worse, generalizing from early in person voters who were interested and engaged enough to vote on the first day of early in person voting to the full electorate is … is … really really bad.
“More accusations made in Alaska Senate primary contest” Anchorage Daily News(August 28)
“Efforts made to skew results” Washington Post “The Fix” (Aug 30)
“Observers watching absentee ballot count closely” Alaska Public Radio (audio) (Aug 27)
“Number of untallied votes rises in Alaska Senate Race” Anchorage Daily News courtesy of Miami Herald / Associated Press (Aug 29)
