Here’s the link again. A lot fewer points because a lot fewer respondents. The Democratic advantage among respondents who say they have already voted is pretty large.
If I did this right using the Ipsos/Reuters “American Mosaic” site, the graphic below shows early voter preferences over the past week. I selected on “registered voters” and “voted in 2012” for the display.
This corresponds pretty well to te trends in support reported by Nate Silver, Real Clear Politics, and others.
Dan Smith, my colleague at University of Florida, provides this useful guide.
This in from a local blogger. The Gerber/Green reference is to this article about “shaming” and vote mobilization.
This should answer a few reporters’ questions. Courtesy of Michael McDonald’s website. Blank states do not mean no early voting–it means there is no data or insufficient data that I felt comfortable plotting the information.
I have been asked to weigh in by a number of my colleagues after Dan Meek alerted the widely read Election Law listserv of communications between Steve Trout, the Director of Elections in Oregon, and the Postmaster General regarding Oregon ballots with insufficient postage.
What I told the emailers, and Rick when he was in town on Saturday, is that there is a backstory here. It may not speak to the specifics of the postage question, but it’s fascinating nonetheless.
Now Jeff Mapes of the Oregonian is on the story, as is a local television station, so I’ll lay the rest out for readers to evaluate. It’s a lot more than most of you want to know!
The short story is that Kate Brown, Oregon Secretary of State, is in a fierce race with a Republican challenger. Oregon Secretaries of State almost never lose, and Brown is likely to win by a small margin. There is some bad blood between Brown and Meek, and even more between Brown and Robert Wolfe, who is running against Brown on the Progressive Party label. Continue reading
My contribution along with some really smart company:
http://www.nytimes.com/roomfordebate/2012/11/08/does-our-voting-system-need-to-be-fixed/?ref=politics