I did some interviews in 2008… a LOT of interviews. We lost track eventually, but the contacts were well past 500 and total appearances past 1000. I’ve been doing a lot fewer this year, in part because I don’t have two assistants working for me–Eva is working in San Francisco for the World Affairs Council and James is at Boalt Law School.
A second reason, though, is that I’m fielding the same questions as I did four years ago. We used to have an Early Voting FAQ that seems to have gotten lost in our website redesign.
In that spirit, the most common questions I get: Continue reading
Image courtesy of ComicVine.com
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Nice story by Jeff Zeleny. Sorry I missed his phone call! I love Michael McDonald, but “studies early voting.” Um….
Got to give NPR props on this Early Voting Calendar. It’s not as neat and precise as ours, but it looks really good.
Image courtey of kissmetrics.com
There have been some breathless stories over the last few days that vastly overstate the number of Americans who are likely to cast an early ballot, in person or no-excuse absentee, in the next few weeks.
Kyle Inskeep of NBC News titled his Sept 21st story: “Early Voting: Half of US Begins Voting Tomorrow.”
Michelle Franzen of MSNBC repeats the statement: “Early Voting Begins in Many States.” The title on the video says “Early Voting Expands” except that early voting has not expanded substantially since 2008 and in at least three states (GA, FL, OH) has been somewhat restricted. Details, details.
What’s the problem? Inskeep is strictly accurate if, when you hear “half the nation” you think “25 of 50 states, not counting DC.” But I think most of us think “half the nation” means half of the voting population. Just like the U.S. Senate, Inskeep counts Wyoming as “1” and California as “1” even though Wyoming’s population is only 1.5% of California’s.
44.8% lived in states that have started early and absentee voting as of September 22nd. It’s a less sexy number than “half” but it’s the right one. Continue reading
I appreciate being the go-to person for early voting statistics and information, and I try to help reporters as best I can. It can be hard, however, when a reporter challenges a piece of information that you gave them, which was drawn from official sources, with a number taken from a campaign. I have no idea where campaigns get their figures.
The most recent set of inquiries come from Ohio. Someone in the Obama campaign believes that 28% of Ohioans voted in-person early or absentee.
The campaign may believe that, but the best information I have at my fingertips come from the Ohio Secretary of State’s website, the AP Elections Unit, and the EAC’s EAVS survey. I show below why I discount the EAC information, so my best information is that approximately 30% of Ohioans cast an early ballot. Continue reading
- Reuters reports on the continuing legal battles over early voting, even as citizens begin to cast their ballots. Amid court challenges, early voting begins in U.S. election [Gronke comments: Along with Hasen and Persily, though speaking only for myself, both parties are fighting hard but this is unlikely to make much of a difference.]
- Ohio officials have mailed out no-excuse absentee ballots statewide and are urging citizens to return them on a timely basis. Cuyahoga County officials encourage early voting to avoid long lines on Election Day [Gronke comments: a natural experiment in action!]
- Kentucky SoS Alison Grimes endorses a bill that will allow overseas citizens and members of the military to return absentee ballots by email. Grimes proposes letting overseas troops vote by email [Gronke comments: if voting by email is quicker and more secure for the troops, why not allow this for everyone?]
I am heading off to Vanderbilt University tomorrow to lecture to John Geer‘s introductory American politics class, and I am pretty sure there will be a relative in the audience!
I have been slashing away at the North Carolina absentee ballot file tonight, just to show the students what kind of ballot tracking goes in under the early voting regime.
One thing I stress at this point: there is not a lot to be learned. I know reporters love to see these early numbers as indicators of something about the campaign, but we are talking about only 134,00o total ballot requests, and as you can see by the figure, only about a quarter have been returned.
The total expected turnout in North Carolina is well over four million.
In short, this ain’t a lot of ballots. The pictures are pretty, but there is not a lot you can conclude.
P.S. To my Political Science 311 students: you’ll be generating these graphs after break!